A week after I released my first Draft Kings preview, my confidence in my ability to turn a profit through daily fantasy MMA is still relatively nonexistent. But, there were a few signs of life.
The strategy for UFC Fight Night 61 a week ago was to separate the fighters in three separate categories: the sure bets, the value plays and the pick-ems.
I was successful with my value play and pick-em selections (Frank Mir, Mike de la Torre and Michael Johnson, and ironically enough, my “sure bets” flat out failed (William Patolino and Iuri Alcantara).
So as we look ahead to UFC 184, I’ll give the three-category method one more try.
(For those that are unfamiliar with the Draft Kings format of daily MMA betting: with a cap of $50,000, the objective is to select 5 fighters – who have been allotted prices – to produce as many points as possible. The rules on how points are scored by a particular fighter can be found on the bottom of this article.)
The Sure Bets Ronda Rousey ($13,500) vs. Cat Zingano
As crazy as this sounds, there’s a lot of value here. Zingano is one of the stiffer tests Rousey could possibly face in the division, but the gap between the champion and everyone else in her division is utterly ridiculous. Taking Rousey here seems like a no-brainer, and the majority of the Draft Kings leagues will come down to how users distribute the remaining $36,500.
Derrick Lewis ($12,600) vs. Ruan Potts
Including Lewis as one the sure bets comes down to him not only being a heavy and deserved favorite over Potts, but the sheer power in his strikes that practically guarantee an early finish. Potts was a nice prospect that made his way up the ranks through EFC Africa, but he has just looked flat in his UFC outings. Lewis should be able to rebound from his September loss to Matt Mitrione.
The Value Plays Roan Carneiro ($7,700) vs. Mark Munoz; Roman Salazar ($7,600) vs. Kid Yamamoto
The thought process between both of these picks comes down to the idea that Munoz and Yamamoto are being overvalued her because of their name and previous history. It’s a been a long time since either Munoz or Yamamoto have looked like they were at their best, and it’s not likely that we’ll see either them fighting in prime condition later today. While I’m not too certain about the idea of Roan Carneiro and Roman Salazar having extended UFC careers, I like the value here.
The Pick-Em Fight Gleison Tibau ($8,500) vs. Tony Ferguson
Out of my 5 selections for UFC 184, this is one I feel the worst about. Picking Tibau was a product of trying to figure how to best spend the remaining money after dishing out a lot of the salary on the sure bets and value pays. While I think Ferguson wins this fight, it’d shock me if this one didn’t go the judges, and there’s a real chance that Ferguson has an off night against a game Tibau.