Towards the end of 2014, this own site’s fearless leader Jason Floyd introduced me to daily fantasy football and basketball.
Now, I’m not entirely sure if that was his way of getting back at me for sarcastically praising the future of Florida State with Sean Maguire under center. After some early success, I decided to throw the Johnny Manziel’s of the world into my lineups and eventually lose whatever profits I initially made.
So after suggesting to Jason that Rich Eisen will probably run a faster 40 time than Jameis Winston at the NFL Combine, I have been assigned to produce lineups for daily MMA betting at Draft Kings.
The intention of this article is not to suggest recommended lineups that will produce the reader wins, but to serve as a public display of an overconfident individual eventually go into a significant amount of debt.
With that being said, here’s my lineup for today’s UFC Fight Night 61 card.
(For those that are unfamiliar with the Draft Kings format of daily MMA betting: with a cap of $50,000, the objective is to select 5 fighters – who have been allotted prices – to produce as many points as possible. The rules on how points are scored by a particular fighter can be found on the bottom of this article.)
The Sure Things
Those that predict fights tend to have philosophies when it comes to predicting bouts. Compared to others, my philosophy is relatively barren, but I do have one strong belief when it comes to predicting fights. I like to scan a card and find fighters that have honed their craft in the Xplode Fight Series, and pick against them. Unfortunately, there are no Xplode Fight Series superstars on this card, so I had to ditch my philosophy.
Iuri Alcantara ($12,100) vs. Frankie Saenz
Alcantara is the biggest favorite on this card for good reason. There’s just more evidence of Alcantara fighting at a high level in every aspect of the fight game in contrast with Saenz, who didn’t exactly light the world on fire in his debut victory against Nolan Ticman. On the feet, Alcantara possesses the speed and superior technique to land a lot of significant strikes and finish the fight in the first round, and on the ground, the Brazilian has also shown a slick grappling game that presents real issues if Saenz decides to take it the ground.
William Patolino ($11,600) vs. Matt Dwyer
For Patolino to be this heavy of a favorite at this point in his UFC career has more to do with his opponent then it does his own skill-set. Although he has plenty of areas to improve upon and refine, Patolino is a dangerous fighter that can explode in bursts and obtain finishes. While Matt Dwyer has shown in his non-UFC career that he’s better than your everyday Johnny Karate with wins over Damarques Johnson and Shonie Carter, his UFC debut could not have gone worse. Dwyer has absolutely dismantled by Albert Tumenov, and it’s a safe bet to expect that to happen again tonight at the hands (and feet) of Patolino.
The Value Plays
Frank Mir ($8,400) vs Antonio Silva
There’s something irrational about picking Frank Mir here because he hasn’t won a fight since 2011 (a fight against Big Nog that he was losing up until the finish). Nevertheless, let me try and rationalize it. There’s a value here given that both Mir and Silva are past their primes. It wouldn’t be surprised if either heavyweight showed up listless in the main event and was finished in the first round, so why not take Frank Mir here when he’s priced so low? (Please, don’t answer that question.)
Mike de la Torre ($8,800) vs. Tiago Trator
This is another value pick that I like more because of the opponent than the fighter itself. Trator has plenty of upside, especially juxtaposed with de la Torre initial two-fight foray in the UFC. Still, I picked de la Torre here because this is a fight that I anticipate playing out on the feet and playing out as a back-and-forth brawl. De la Torre’s is going to accrue several significant strikes in this bout, and it wouldn’t be stunning if he finishes Trator with a combination amidst a wild exchange.
The Pick-Em Fight
Michael Johnson ($9,100) vs. Edson Barboza
Both Johnson and Barboza have shown an incredible amount of development on a fight to fight basis. Clearly, Barboza is the better of the two on the feet, but Johnson can game-plan around that and fight the match on his own terms. Given that he’s giving up $900 here on the base salary, I’ll take Johnson to round out my line-up.
Dan’s UFC Fight Night 61 Line-up
Iuri Alcantara, $12,100
William Patolino, $11,600
Frank Mir, $8,400
Mike de la Torre, $8,800
Michael Johnson, $9,100
Draft King’s MMA Scoring System:
1st Round Win: 100 points
2nd Round Win: 70 points
3rd Round Win: 50 points
4th Round Win: 40 points
5th Round Win: 40 points
Decision Win: 25 points
Significant Strikes: 0.5 points
Advances: 1 point
Takedowns: 2 points
Reversal/Sweeps: 2 points
Knockdowns: 3 points