UFC on FOX 15 Draft Kings advice and recommended lineup

UFC on FOX 15 will take place today from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey and the fight card will begin at 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT with three preliminary bout on Fight Pass before the card moves to FOX at 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT.UFC on FOX 15

The event will be headlined by a key middleweight bout as former UFC champion Lyoto Machida meets former Strikeforce champion Luke Rockhold and the winner of the fight will likely be awarded a title shot in the UFC middleweight division.

Take a look at my Draft Kings preview and recommended lineup for today’s event.

(For those that are unfamiliar with the Draft Kings format of daily MMA betting: with a cap of $50,000, the objective is to select 5 fighters – who have been allotted prices – to produce as many points as possible. The rules on how points are scored by a particular fighter can be found on the bottom of this article.)

Jacare Souza ($11,900) vs Chris Camozzi
Much like UFC 184 with Ronda Rousey, the strategy here is to go with the majority and play this lineup with 4 picks and remaining $38,1000 in salary that’s left over. With all due respect to Camozzi (and seriously, a lot of respect should head Camozzi’s way for taking on Souza on essentially a week’s notice), this fight has a high probability of ending with a first round finish by Souza.

Corey Anderson ($11,000) vs Gian Villante
Just on paper, this card looks like it’s filled with a lot of bouts that’ll go the judges. This is one of the few fights available on Draft Kings that is expected to end in a finish, and Corey Anderson should deliver on that expectation. He’s still a raw talent, but Villante has been on the receiving end of an incredible amount of significant strikes thus far in his UFC career.

Max Holloway ($9,100) vs Cub Swanson
Swanson is actually my pick in this fight, but this bout was essentially a coin flip to pick. This lightweight scrap should play out predominately on the feet and should play out for all three rounds, but Holloway is a high output striker. Holloway should accumulate a lot of points on the feet, and he may get his hand raised thanks to a close decision.

Jim Miller ($8,700) vs Beneil Dariush
With Dariush on the way up the lightweight ranks, he meets Jim Miller on his way down. While Dariush has a lot of momentum and has quickly changed the perception of his game since his UFC debut, there’s a lot of value here with Miller being the underdog. Miller’s a consistent sub-top tier lightweight, and at this point in Dariush’s career, I think that’ll prove to be too much.

Felice Herrig ($9,300) vs Paige VanZant
VanZant has a tremendous of hype and deservedly so. She’s an aggressive fighter that’s really young who trains at a top camp. Still, Herrig should provide a tough challenge with her technique and experience. Just by pushing the pace, VanZant will probably make Herrig uncomfortable throughout the fight and keep it close, but Herrig is just more well-versed in the clinch and on the feet at this point.

Draft King’s MMA Scoring System
1st Round Win: 100 points
2nd Round Win: 70 points
3rd Round Win: 50 points
4th Round Win: 40 points
5th Round Win: 40 points
Decision Win: 25 points

Significant Strikes: 0.5 points
Advances: 1 point
Takedowns: 2 points
Reversal/Sweeps: 2 points
Knockdowns: 3 points