Two of the more interesting lightweights in the world of mixed martial arts will clash horns Saturday night in San Jose as Nate Diaz takes on another former Strikeforce staple and local fighter Josh Thompson.
Thompson will look to make a statement in his return to the UFC by taking out a former title challenger, while Diaz has said win or lose he’s moving back up to welterweight, for reasons only a Diaz couldn’t probably understand.
Diaz (16-8) returns to the octagon for the first time since coming up short in his title campaign, losing a rather one sided decision to current champion Benson Henderson back in December of last year. He had reeled off the straight impressive victories since returning to the lightweight division prior, earning him the title shot against Henderson.
Diaz has seemingly already made up his mind about moving back up to the welterweight division after this bout, feeling the lightweight division has nothing left for him. He did lose that title fight, just so we are clear.
The younger Diaz brother clearly modeled his game after older brother Nick, look no further than his style of boxing to prove it. Nate, however, has relied more on his submission game than that of the older Diaz, with eleven of his wins coming via the sub.
Nate is very capable of picking an opponent apart on the feet as well, as evidenced by his dominated of skilled striking Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. Diaz may look to keep this fight on the feet and pressure Thomson with his array of punches, where he should have a striking advantage.
The oft-injured Josh “The Punk” Thomson (19-5) comes into this bout having most recently dropped the rubber match in his trilogy of fights with title challenger Gilbert Melendez by a controversial split decision. Almost looked at as an afterthought in Gilbert’s road to the UFC, Thomson once again showed why he was once looked at as one of the most promising lightweights in MMA, as he battled Melendez tooth and nail before coming up on the short end of that decision, but gaining respect amongst viewers. He now gets another shot in the Octagon, his first fight within the UFC since 2004.
Thomson is a pretty well rounded fighter, but thrives when able to get takedowns and work his top game. He’s an athletic guy as well, which allows him to mix in some pretty decent kicks in his striking game, which helped keep Melendez off balance in their trilogy. He may be well served to go to those kicks early to keep Diaz off balance, then utilize takedowns when Diaz gets frustrated and over-extends. His wrestling should be a big advantage; he’s also never been submitted in an mixed martial arts contest.
For as crazy as the Diaz brothers may be, perhaps the more enigmatic fighter is “The Punk.” Sometimes he looks the part of top ten lightweight, other times not so much. Whether that has been due to injury or other distractions, I have a feeling Thomson will come out to put on a show in front of his home crowd and in his first fight back in the UFC.
I look for Josh to mix up leg kicks and some push kicks to keep Diaz guessing, then utilize takedowns to steal rounds. He’ll have to fight off the submissions of Nate, but he’s done it against Melendez for fifteen rounds, who’s a teammate of Diaz, so I think he’ll be safe. I’m picking Thomson by unanimous decision for the upset.