Following the action packed weekend of Bellator 104 and UFC 166, many satisfied MMA fans will have little time to swoon. With three televised MMA events hosted by the three largest North American MMA promotions playing back to back this weekend.
Bellator 105 takes place tonight from the Santa Ana Star Center in Rio Rancho, New Mexico and will be headlined by the semifinals in the Bellator season nine lightweight tournament.
The purpose of this article is not necessarily to offer gambling advice, but more so to offer a gambling perspective of the fights.
Saad Awad +135 (15-5) vs. Will Brooks -155 (11-1)
It’s deja vu for these fighters as they again find themselves facing off in the lightweight tournament semifinal. I was shocked to find Brooks as the favorite when the lines came out for this fight, despite getting brutally knocked out in the first round of their season 8 semifinal bout.
It can only be explained by the amount of prospect potential and hype (fan or media) surrounding Brooks. Other than that, the only weapons I see Brooks being a serious threat to Awad is the wrestling department. While Brooks does have a stiff jab and wide range of kicks, his real strength remains his clinch wrestling and top control. Don’t be surprised to see Brooks throw any opponent in his signature vertical suplex on the right night.
Though I must say, don’t see this happening to Awad. His offensive wrestling versus David Rickels won him the first two rounds. I believe he will be able to stuff any and all takedowns from Brooks for at least the first round…that’s if he gets a chance to shoot.
Brooks is by no means a slow starter, but Awad comes out every fight with his foot on the gas. His heavy hands don’t make it any easier for his opponent either. With 7 wins (6 in the first round) in his last 8 fights, and being the sole blemish in Brooks career; I believe he has tremendous value at +135.
PLAYS: Awad +135 is a solid play. Brooks will have a hard time finishing Awad till later in the fight, while I feel Awad can finish Brooks at any point. I like the under one and a half rounds here as well at +130. If Awad does win it will most likely be early, making the U1.5 a nice or possible hedge should something unexpected happen. I have 1 unit on each (Awad +135/U1.5 +130).
Tiger Sarnavskiy -380 (24-1) vs. Ricardo Triloni +315 (16-4)
The other half of the season 9 lightweight tournament semifinals, Tiger vs. Triloni can only be seen playing out a few ways…Tiger wins by decision, Tiger wins by submission, and Tiger wins by knock out. Take the possibility of the always present “Flash KO” out of the equation and all that remains is Tiger.
Now please don’t take me wrong, Tirloni is a well rounded scrapper; but he just comes up short vs. Tiger in every category. Tirloni has some hands and can through a fast ball now and again, but for the most part is lunging forward and largely ineffective. While Tiger is tight and technical with his strikes; but don’t be surprised to see flying knees and spinning backfists in his arsenal.
Tirloni has a BJJ black belt and some skill on the ground, but I don’t see him taking Tiger down or holding top position, much less submitting him. For experienced gamblers, Tiger is a solid pick in this fight and an excellent fighter to leave in open ended parlays for future bets.
PLAYS: Tiger…duh. Though I must say -380 is too high for spoiled ol’ me. So I will be using him as parlay fodder with 2 other fighters on the card. I have no interest in the under at +150 due to Tirloni being very durable and hard to finish. Having only lost to Bellator’s best such as Dave Jansen, Rick Hawn, and Will Brooks.
Keith Berry +160 (15-11) vs. Eugene Fadiora -210 (12-1)
Berry has been begging for a fight since receiving his first loss in the promotion to Jeremy Kimball this summer at Bellator 97. He now steps in for an injured Andreas Spang for his bout vs. Eugene Fadiora, who is making his Bellator debut. Another of Bellator’s UK prospects, Fadiora is an impressive fighter boasting a 12-1 record, his sole loss coming to UFC prospect Gunnar Nelson.
Being a kick boxer at heart, Fadiora’s ground game is not shabby at all and may in fact be his best asset. I have to go with Fadiora here, Berry has a solid chin but is very hittable. My sole worry is Berry using his wrestling to take Fadiora down and hold him there for 15 minute; though I don’t see this happening as Berry puts on very exciting fights at his own expense it seems.
PLAYS: Fadiora should have a solid striking advantage, as well as the submission advantage. Meaning Fadiora controls when the fight ends. Berry should be the better wrestler, though I don’t see him holding him down for long and preferring to lunge in with strikes as he gets tired. Again, the price is too high for a straight play, but makes excellent parlay fodder. (Tiger/Fadiora)
Ron Sparks +290 (8-2) vs. Mighty Mo -350 (4-2)
Mighty Mo rose to fame on the K-1 kick boxing circuit some time ago, but has now recently returned to MMA with a win over Dan Charles at Bellator 100. In the fight he should tremendous improvement in his ground game and take down defense. This takes away what most consider to be Sparks’ best shot to beat him, by locking in a submission.
Though Sparks is no stranger him self to the K-1 circuit, he is no where near the level of striker Mo is. Fighters with a solid kicking game have always given Mo trouble in the past, Sparks doesn’t have a kicking style. The final factor is chins, which despite being knocked out many times, Mo’s is still solid while Sparks has seemed to fade recently.
PLAYS: This is Mo’s fight to win and he will close my 1 unit parlay (Tiger/Fadiora/Mo +140). I have no interest in the under or the over for this fight, as it could easily be a 15 second knockout or a 15 minute heavyweight gas out.